wikihurricanesforecastingfandomcom-20200214-history
East Pacific/2015/03E/Archive/27
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 27 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER 10:00 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...CARLOS FALLING APART SOUTH OF THE MEXICO COASTLINE... SUMMARY OF 10:00 PM CDT...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION... 18.4N 104.6W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...100 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 994 MB...29.36 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 KT...6 MPH...9 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 10:00 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at 18.4N, 104.6W, or about 50 miles (85 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 994 millibars (hPa; 29.36 inHg), and the system had turned toward the northeast at 5 knots (6 mph, 9 km/h). Increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to cause Carlos to continue to weaken at a rapid pace, and dissipation is expected within 48 hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 4:00 am CDT. $$ Forecaster TAWX14 Discussion TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER 10:00 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Carlos' tenacious behavior has come to a screeching halt this evening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigated the storm around 18z, recording peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 90 kt and peak surface winds of 81 kt. Since that time, the satellite presentation of the system has fallen apart. Most of the associated deep convection with the storm has evaporated, and what little shower and thunderstorm activity still exists is very poorly organized. Although analyses only indicate 5 to 10 knots of wind shear atop Carlos, the storm's small stature has made it very susceptible to conditions larger cyclones would otherwise be able to intensify in. The shear also seems to be helping drier air from the mountainous terrain of Mexico become entrained into the circulation. Nonetheless, Carlos is almost certainly not a hurricane anymore. 0z satellite estimates were T3.5/55kt from both SAB and TAFB. In addition, the raw estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT had fallen to T2.0/30kt! The initial intensity is set at a likely generous 55 kt under the assumption that surface winds have not spun down at too quick of a pace. This is the end of the road for Carlos. Environmental conditions are not expected to change substantially over the coming days, with 5 to 10 knots of northerly wind shear, 700-500mb relative humidity values between 50% and 55%, and sea surface temperatures near 28C. Given recent trends this evening, these factors are obviously not favorable for the maintenance of a system as small as Carlos. Most intensity models only show a gradual decline in intensity throughout the forecast period. The global models, on the other hand, are much more pessimistic with the tropical storm, and both the GFS and ECMWF show dissipation over the next 36 hours or sooner. Considering its current satellite presentation, most of the weight for this forecast package has been placed on the global models. The updated forecast shows Carlos becoming a tropical depression within 24 hours and dissipating within 48 hours. It is possible that the storm could become post tropical much sooner than indicated. Carlos has taken a jog toward the northeast this evening as its low-level center becomes exposed for all to see. However, the steering regime remains unchanged, and Carlos is expected to resume its northwesterly motion toward a break in the subtropical ridge to its north. Model guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory and is likely to do so even further given the recent northeast jog. As a result, the new track forecast is east of the previous run, showing the center of Carlos passing very close to the coast of Mexico before dissipation. INIT 17/0300Z 18.4N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 19.0N 105.0W 45 KT 55 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.2N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 19.6N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster TAWX14